Predictable offense will lead to lack of championships

East Carolina’s football program, like every other athletic program at ECU, wants to win a conference championship, and if possible, a national championship.

In hopes of winning an American Athletic Conference championship, ECU fired its former head football coach, Ruffin McNeill, on December 4, 2015 because McNeill’s coaching wasn’t going in that direction, according to statements made by ECU’s Director of Athletics Jeff Compher during the press conference the day of the firing.

“However, after observing and evaluating the [head coach] position for three seasons, we came to the conclusion that our football team was not meeting competitive expectations, and--in my opinion--the trajectory of the program was not going in the right direction,” Compher said in that press briefing.

While the university wants to win both conference and national championships, I, however, don’t think the football program will be winning a championship anytime soon. I believe this because of the offensive system the Pirates run under current head coach Scottie Montgomery, along with the relatively weak defense it has to help support it.

The Pirates run a spread offense, which is theoretically a great system for the passing attack. ECU doesn’t rely on deep passes to move the ball, but instead throws a lot of screens. Screens have the possibility to blow open defenses, but if you don’t change your play calling, teams will beat you.

East Carolina’s passing attack was ranked sixth in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) Ranking on CBS Sports last season. In the Pirates’ spectacular air game, they completed 359 of 554 attempts for 4,016 yards with 26 touchdowns, while their rushing attack only had 1,598 yards and 13 touchdowns.

These statistics are great, however the Pirates only won three games last season, one of them against a conference opponent, while seven of their losses came against conference foes.

Here is where I believe lies the problem. The key to winning championships in college football includes an effective running game. When I think of national champions, I think of effective Heisman Trophy winning running backs such as Derrick Henry and Mark Ingram of the University of Alabama. East Carolina’s passing game, though effective, doesn’t score enough to counteract its opponents’ offensive attack that beats the weaker defense of ECU.

ECU has a fast paced air attack that can put points on the board without much time coming off the clock, but scoring quickly can be the downfall of the team. It leaves more time for the other team to beat down the defense with a slower paced offense. Therefore, the Pirates’ clock management needs work to help increase their chances of winning because the Pirates’ air attack that scores so rapidly, leaves their opponents with a lot of time on the clock to outscore ECU. A way to help fix this is for the Pirates to beef up their offensive line to run the ball effectively. Not only does ECU need to strengthen the offensive line, but the Pirates need to go under center more, so it isn’t as obvious when it’s a running play instead of a pass.

The Pirates mostly used the shotgun and pistol formations, and while both can be effective, a team can become predictable to play against if it doesn't change up its formations enough. Becoming easily anticipated usually creates more losses in a season, especially when the offense doesn’t have a dominant defense to counteract against opposing offenses.

While the Pirates have been effective throwing from shotgun and the pistol, they don’t necessarily set themselves for a potent run game. Although, shotgun can help with runs outside the tackle box, it doesn’t allow the running back to gain much speed for runs straight up the gut. Straight downhill running creates opportunities to gain more yards per carry than running off the edge.

The major takeaway from this is the Pirates need to become a less predictable offense by using a more well-rounded system that keeps opposing defenses on its heels. By doing so, the Pirates’ offense will be more in control, as long as its execution is above average and fast. ECU also needs to use the run game more to help decrease that predictability and to better manage the game clock to help their chances of winning more games and possibly a championship.